CONFIDENTIAL
ANGLO/FRENCH TALKS 25 OCTOBER
INTERNAL SITUATION IN IRAQ,
1. If, as is expected, the fighting in Kurdistan is halted
by the weather by the end of October, the subsequent return
of many of the military to Baghdad and the disclosure of the
extent of Central Government losses in the recent campaign
may create problems for the Baath regime. We have seen
several indications over the last six months of dispute
within the Party about how to conduct the campaign. Saddam
Hussain seems to have been the major protagonist and may,
during Bakr's reportedly serious illness, have assumed more
command over the Army.
2. It may be that when the real position in Kurdistan
becomes known, opposition to Saddam Hussain within the Party
will increase and might conceivably lead to a reduction in
his authority or possibly to his removal.
We should like to know the French views on:
Bakr's illness and the extent to which this has
affected his participation in party affairs.
(b)
The prospects of the future stability of the regime
as constituted at present, and
(c)
Saddam Hussain's future.
CONFIDENTIAL
