CONFIDENTIAL ANGLO/FRENCH TALKS 25 OCTOBER INTERNAL SITUATION IN IRAQ, 1. If, as is expected, the fighting in Kurdistan is halted by the weather by the end of October, the subsequent return of many of the military to Baghdad and the disclosure of the extent of Central Government losses in the recent campaign may create problems for the Baath regime. We have seen several indications over the last six months of dispute within the Party about how to conduct the campaign. Saddam Hussain seems to have been the major protagonist and may, during Bakr's reportedly serious illness, have assumed more command over the Army. 2. It may be that when the real position in Kurdistan becomes known, opposition to Saddam Hussain within the Party will increase and might conceivably lead to a reduction in his authority or possibly to his removal. We should like to know the French views on: Bakr's illness and the extent to which this has affected his participation in party affairs. (b) The prospects of the future stability of the regime as constituted at present, and (c) Saddam Hussain's future. CONFIDENTIAL
