Iran: multilateral political relations p.27

FCO 8/4608 1982 Jan 01 - 1982 Dec 31
CONFIDENTIAL R-M fopy to Mc wley wana
duermentadtall (26)sa o copied them to Mr WAN ,d

مر20

BRITISH INTERESTS SECTION
TEHRAN

18 October 1982

NBP 0211

D Coates EsqMEDFCO

انا الیه

و

Action zaken

Den David,

JIC (82)(N)94:

IRAN'S FOREIGN RELATIONS

1. Just a quick word to say that we found the above a very goodand well balanced paper. We certainly have no major disagreementswith it.

HH.N

ph on complexit han final pacteview of identifying to be a went leadenfior

2. The paragraph on internal factors was particularly good, showing as it did their complexity and the often contradictory evidence.In view of this we wonder if the final paragraph may not have gonetoo far in identifying Rafsanjani with extreme policies; he isoften considered here to be a weather-vane, and as perhaps the mostpolitical animal among the current leaders he could change withchanging circumstances. It is the Revolutionary Guards and theHezbullahis who are probably more permanently extreme. It mighthave been better to say just that the balance of factional powerafter Khomeini's death will determine how extreme policies arethen, even though for readers that would not be a very helpfulstatement!

Yous even
Chris

CJ S Rundle

CONFIDENTIAL