TOP SECRET that the Imam achieves in his present efforts against the Dhala and Beihan areas of the Western Aden Protectorate: if he is successful there he will almost certainly extend his aggression to other parts of the Western Protectorate, such as the Audhali country, the Upper Aulegi and possibly the Subeihi. If he is definitely repulsed he may be discouraged and decide to pursue his aims for a time by intrigue rather than by attack. The second factor is the extent to which the Imam receives external encouragement and assistance. Such encouragement might come from Egypt, the Soviet Union, and Saudi Arabia, who have a vested interest in stirring up trouble for H.M. Government. Conversely, if pressure from the Western Powers, including the Americans, could be brought to bear significantly upon these countries in order to discourage such policies, the Yemeni effort would rapidly diminish. The Imam is actively seeking supplies. The ability of the Yemenis to handle complicated weapons and equipment is at present limited, but there is reason to assume that this deficiency is being made good. + 6. The extension of the area of operations is only likely to arise from a combination of Saudi-Arabian and Yemeni tribes, of which there has been one indication. If this were to develop, operations might extend to the Eastern Protectorate frontier with the Yemen and Saudi Arabia. PORCES AVAILABLE 7. The main striking force available to the Governor of Aden consists of the Royal Air Force, the Aden Protectorate Levies and the 1st Battalion the Cameron Highlanders. Details of the forces available, including local forces, are shown at Appendix. Reliability of Local Forces and Propaganda 8. The loyalty of the Aden Protectorate Levies and Govern ment Guards is primarily to their own tribes but, being mercenaries, much depends on their pay and conditions of service being good. Generally both forces can be relied on for action against normal dissident activity, although recent operations have shown an increase of desertions in the APL when individuals have been used in their own tribal areas. In normal frontier operations the APL, with a stiffening of British troops, can be relied on provided there is no marked improvement in the weapons and tactics used against them. Government Guards are not trained for such operations and are better employed guarding frontier posts and sending back information. Propaganda and direct sub version has had some effect on the APL although, to date, little on the Government Guards. There is no doubt however, that continued hostile propaganda will have an undermining and poisonous effect both on the Protectorate Tribes and the outside world. In our view some effective counter to this propaganda must be developed. REINFORCEMENTS 9. Present plans provide for 1st Battalion Kings Shropshire Light Infantry to be flown in from Kenya if required. The necessary airlift would be provided from the United Kingdom. - 2 - TOP SECRET
